Regarding Jennifer Daler’s shocking upset win in Bill O’Brien’s district (the 16th most GOP of the state), someone needs to send NHGOP Chair Jack Kimball to Spin School, and stat:
“Unfortunately special elections have a lower voter turnout and I am disappointed with the outcome.”
Try again, Jack. This is from Pindell’s pre-game analysis:
The Turnout: Low and unpredictable
In general, both parties were looking at a low turnout of around 10 percent to 11 percent, meaning that the first candidate to get to 600 votes or so would win. Now with pouring rain, that number could be even lower. The theory is that unusual turnout helps Democrats (extremely high turnout or extremely low turnout.) Anything in the range of normal or expected should have Republicans winning the day.
So Jennifer Daler got to 600 then, right?
Wrong. Sweeping all five towns in the district, the totals were 1401 (Daler) to 1007 (Kucmas).
Turnout was high for both candidates. Either Kimball has no idea what he’s doing (likely), or he doesn’t even care how flimsy his spin is (also likely).
So what’s up with the high turnout? Pindell, again, later today:
“Some people are upset by something and motivated to turnout,” said one strategist. “We just don’t know what it is.”
Apparently the GOPers are tripping over each other right now on whether to blame Kimball or O’Brien for this huge fail. Leaving aside that Jennifer Daler was a terrific candidate who worked her tail off over the past few months, I don’t think you can pin this on Kimball not knowing what he’s doing (even though that is largely true).
People are upset by something. Rather, they are upset by a lot of somethings. and every one of those somethings has its origin in House Speaker Bill O’Brien’s leadership.