My how the worm has turned:
New Hampshire’s U.S. Rep. Frank Guinta is deadlocked in a potential rematch with the candidate he ousted in 2010, while U.S. Rep. Charlie Bass has a narrow lead in a rematch, according to new polling data from Watchdog.org
In New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, Republican Guinta and Democrat Carol Shea-Porter each garner 41 percent support from likely voters. Guinta, a former Mayor of Manchester, defeated Shea-Porter 54-42 percent in 2010.
Needless to say these are better numbers than were seen for all of the 2010 cycle. One big caveat - this is a Pulse Opinion Research poll, “an independent public opinion research firm that used automated polling methodology and procedures licensed from Rasmussen Reports LLC." Yes…Rasmussen.
Still it’s from 500 likely voters, and the MoE is +/-4.5%.
In the same poll, Annie Kuster trails the BassMaster 39-35.
If this poll is anywhere near accurate, it confirms my hunch that the first district will be more competitive than conventional wisdom says, and the second will be a bit harder to flip than everyone assumes.
Guinta can’t hide from his campaign of illegal push polls, mystery money, advocating the elimination of Social Security, and wrapping himself up in Tea. Career Villager Bass, on the other hand, is one of the DC’s best chameleons. He always knows which way the wind blows.